Predicting UCD v St Patrick's Athletic

St Patrick's Athletic are unbeaten in seven games in the Airtricity League Premier Division. They are also unbeaten in seven league meetings with UCD, whom they play at the UCD Bowl today. It is six wins and a draw in each instance.

Can the Saints stay top after their visit to the Belfield Bowl? All four of our predictive methods – Rateform (x2), the Poisson distribution and score prediction heuristic – forecast an away win. It is unanimous.

According to the goal probability distribution data (Poisson), the most likely outcome is a 3-1 win for St Pat’s. There is a 7.7 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 21.2pc probability St Pat’s will score exactly three goals. There is a 36.5pc chance UCD will score precisely one.

Interestingly, the score prediction heuristic – which tracks the shorter-terms trends – also suggests St Pat’s will score three goals. It indicates a 3-0 win for Liam Buckley’s side. There is a 6.8pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 32.1pc chance UCD will get no goals.

There is only a 2.7pc chance St Pat’s will fail to score and a 69.8pc probability they will score a minimum of two.

How to profit? An Asian handicap, perhaps, with St Pat’s giving up either a one- or two-goal start.

All four of our predictive methods also come down in favour of Cork City, who are at home to Derry City, and Dundalk, who are away to Limerick FC.

According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome at Turner’s Cross is a 1-0 win for Cork. There is a 21.2pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 36.1pc probability Cork will score exactly one goal. There is a 58.7pc chance Derry will get no goals.

According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome at Thomond Park is also a 1-0 win, for Dundalk. There is a 22.1pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 34.5pc probability Dundalk will score exactly one goal. There is a 64pc chance Limerick will get no goals.

The score prediction heuristic also suggests Derry and Limerick will get no goals. The system indicates a 2-0 win for Cork (12.8pc probability) and a 3-0 victory for Dundalk (7.2pc chance).

The match between Drogheda United and Bohemians at United Park is best avoided due to the uncertainty of outcome based on our predictive methods.

Rateform (rolled over season-on-season since 2012) favours a Drogheda win. The score prediction heuristic suggests a victory for Bohemians by 4-1 (1.9pc chance). As the 1.9pc likelihood indicates, a 4-1 win for Bohemians is not very likely. Still, that is what the score prediction heuristic suggests.

Rateform (based solely on 2014) and the goal probability distribution data both indicate draws. According to the goal probability distribution data, there is a 10.7pc chance of the game ending in a 1-1 draw. There is a 33.7pc probability Drogheda will score exactly one goal. There is a 31.9pc chance Bohemians will.

In the First Division, Rateform (x2) favours wins for Galway United against Finn Harps at Eamonn Deacy Park and Shelbourne against Shamrock Rovers B at Tolka Park.

Rateform (x2) is undecided about the game between Wexford Youths and Waterford United at Ferrycarrig Park. Rateform (rolled over season-on-season since 2012) favours Waterford. Rateform (based solely on 2014) favours Wexford Youths.

Where any uncertainty is indicated, avoid.