Predicting St. Pat's versus Cork City

Cork City’s first defeat of the campaign in a 4-0 loss at Dundalk last weekend saw the Leesiders drop from first to third in the Airtricity League Premier Division.

Can John Caulfield’s side get back to winning ways when they visit defending champions St Patrick's Athletic tonight?

It appears not. None of our predictive methods see Cork winning at Richmond Park.

The score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, and Rateform (rolled over season-on-season since 2012) favour a win for St Pat’s. Rateform (based solely on this season) and the goal probability distribution data both indicate a draw.

The score prediction heuristic suggests a 2-1 victory for St Pat’s. How likely is that? According to the goal probability distribution data (Poisson), there is an 8.3 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 23.2pc probability St Pat’s will score precisely two goals. There is a 35.8pc chance Cork will score exactly one.

By the same token, there is 22.5pc probability Cork will net precisely two goals. There is a 5.2pc chance of the game ending in a 2-2 draw.

The Poisson distribution itself indicates a 1-1 draw. According to the goal probability distribution data, there is a 12.6pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 35.3pc probability St Pat’s will score precisely one goal. As already outlined, there is a 35.8pc chance Cork will score exactly one.

According to our calculations, the ‘fair’ odds about a St Pat’s win are 2.0 (implied probability 50pc) and 3.4 (implied probability 31.25pc) Cork. The ‘value’ is in siding with Cork, although all the indications are it is unlikely that they will win.

ELSEWHERE:

On the balance of probabilities (based on the same predictive methods used earlier), do not expect Bohemians (home to UCD), Limerick FC (away to Bray Wanderers) and Shamrock Rovers (away to Derry City) to lose, with Shamrock Rovers and, possibly, Bohemians, too, looking more likely to win than draw. The game between Bray and Limerick at the Carlisle Grounds appears a strong candidate for a share of the spoils.

POISSON DISTRBUTION INDICATES (most likely outcome):

Bohemians v UCD 2-1 (9.3pc)

Bray Wanderers v Limerick FC  0-0 (27.2pc)

Derry City v Shamrock Rovers  0-1 (18.7pc)

Again, remember that even the most likely scorelines are not that likely.

FIRST DIVISION

Rateform does not see Shelbourne losing against Waterford United at the RSC.

Based solely on this season, Rateform favours a win for Shelbourne.

Rateform (rolled over season-on-season since 2012) indicates a draw.