Predicting Dundalk v Cork City

The main focus of attention today in the Airtricity League Premier Division is the meeting of Dundalk and Cork City at Oriel Park.

Cork, who lead the way on goal difference from defending champions St Patrick's Athletic, are a point better off than Dundalk, who are one of only three teams yet to lose at home this season.

The Leesiders have a 100 per cent away record (three wins) and have yet to concede a goal on the road in the league in 2014.

So how do our predictive methods see this match panning out? It is not clear-cut.

The score prediction heuristic, which tracks the shorter-term trends, and Rateform (rolled over season-on-season since 2012) favour a Dundalk win. However, Rateform (based solely on this season) suggests a draw. The Poisson distribution indicates a win for Cork.

The score prediction heuristic forecasts a 2-1 victory for Dundalk. According to the goal probability distribution data (Poisson), there is a 4.2 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 12.3pc probability Dundalk will score precisely two goals. There is a 34.3pc chance Cork will score exactly one.

The Poisson distribution itself favours a 1-0 win for Cork. According to the goal probability distribution data, there is a 49.3pc chance Dundalk will fail to score. There is a 16.9pc probability of the game ending in a 1-0 win for Cork.

Remember, though, that while Cork have the best defensive record in the Premier Division (just five goals conceded in nine games), six of those matches (two thirds) have been played at Turner’s Cross.

Another thing that it may pay to know is that John Caulfield’s side have yet to concede a goal before the 57th minute of a match this season. Accordingly, it might prove profitable to elect for Dundalk to score in the first half in the ‘time of first team goal market’.

We are not suggesting that this makes it any more likely that Cork will concede a goal in the opening period tonight. It does not, but it is worth noting.

According to our calculations, the ‘fair’ odds about a Dundalk win are 2.29 (implied probability 43.75pc) and 3.75 (implied probability 37.5pc) Cork.

ELSEWHERE:

On the balance of probabilities, do not expect Bray Wanderers (away to Athlone Town), Derry City (away to Bohemians), Shamrock Rovers (home to Limerick FC) and Drogheda United (away to UCD) to lose, with Bray, Rovers and Drogheda looking more likely winners. Derry could draw for the fourth consecutive game.