Predicting Airtricity League Gameweek 8

Our focus today is on Cork City and Dundalk, who occupy the top two positions in the Airtricity League Premier Division. Cork are at home to Bohemians. Dundalk are in Bray. Will the two sides still be neck and neck after the 10th series of games? On the basis of our analysis, yes.

According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 2-0 win for Cork against Bohs. There is a 17.1 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 27pc probability Cork will score precisely two goals. There is a 63.2pc chance Bohs will get no goals. By the same token, there is a 29pc probability the Gypsies will score exactly one. So you cannot discount the possibility of them getting amongst the goals. There is a 7.8pc chance of the game ending in a 2-1 win for Cork.

According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is also a 2-0 win for Dundalk. There is a 10.2pc chance of such an occurrence. There is a 25.4pc probability Dundalk will score precisely two goals. There is a 40pc chance Bray will get no goals. By the same token, there is a 36.7pc probability Bray will score exactly one. Again, on that basis, you cannot discount the possibility of them getting amongst the goals. There is a 9.3pc chance of the game ending in a 2-1 win for Dundalk.

PREMIER DIVISION POISSON PREDICTIONS (most likely scoreline in brackets):

Bray v Dundalk AWAY win (0-2; 10.2pc chance)

Cork v Bohemians HOME win (2-0; 17.1pc chance)

Derry v UCD HOME win (1-0; 15.4pc chance)

Drogheda v Shamrock Rovers AWAY win (1-2; 9.6pc chance)

Limerick v Sligo DRAW (0-0; 36.2pc chance)

St Pat's v Athlone HOME win (3-0; 9pc chance)  

RATEFORM PREDICTS (ROLLED OVER SEASON-ON-SEASON FROM 2012):

Bray v Dundalk AWAY win

Cork v Bohemians HOME win

Derry v UCD HOME win

Drogheda v Shamrock Rovers AWAY win

Limerick v Sligo AWAY win

St Pat's v Athlone HOME win

RATEFORM PREDICTS (BASED ON 2014 ONLY):

Bray v Dundalk AWAY win

Cork v Bohemians HOME win

Derry v UCD HOME win

Drogheda v Shamrock Rovers AWAY win

Limerick v Sligo DRAW

St Pat's v Athlone HOME win

IN SUMMARY:

As ever, that is a lot to take on board. Armed with all of that information, you could perhaps look at it this way. On the balance of probabilities, do not expect Dundalk, Cork, Derry, Shamrock Rovers, Sligo or St Pat’s to lose, with Dundalk, Cork, Derry, Shamrock Rovers and St Pat’s looking likely winners. While our analysis does not see Limerick beating Sligo at Thomond Park, the goal probability data and Rateform (based solely on this season), indicates a draw as being the most likely outcome. Even with the help the Poisson distribution provides, it is important to remember that the most likely scoreline is still not that likely to occur. In that respect, the 36.2pc probability of the game between Limerick and Sligo ending in a goalless draw is unusually high.