Predicting Airtricity League Monday

You may recall our advice on Friday. We said not to expect Cork, Derry, Limerick or St Pat’s to lose, with Cork, Limerick and St Pat’s more likely to win than draw.  The Poisson distribution also highlighted a share of the spoils as the most likely outcome in the fixtures between Bray and Derry and Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers. We were correct in all five instances. We advised giving the Sligo v UCD match a miss owing to the uncertainty of outcome based on our analysis.

How about today and, in particular, the top two, Cork and Dundalk? Cork are away to UCD, while Dundalk travel to Athlone.

According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 3-0 win for Cork. There is a 12.5 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 21pc probability Cork will score precisely three goals. There is a 59.6pc chance UCD will get no goals. By the same token, there is a 30.9pc probability UCD will score exactly one goal. So you cannot discount the possibility of UCD getting amongst the goals. On that basis, there is a 6.5pc chance of the game ending in a 3-1 win for Cork.

According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 4-1 win for Dundalk. There is a 7pc probability of such an occurrence. There is a 19.2pc chance Dundalk will score precisely four goals. There is a 36.7pc probability Athlone, who are looking to avoid a ninth straight defeat in the league, will score exactly one.

OTHER PREMIER DIVISION POISSON PREDICTIONS:

Bohemians v Sligo AWAY win

Derry v Limerick DRAW

Drogheda v St Pat’s DRAW

Shamrock Rovers v Bray HOME win

RATEFORM PREDICTS (ROLLED OVER SEASON-ON-SEASON FROM 2012):

Bohemians v Sligo AWAY win

Derry v Limerick HOME win/borderline DRAW

UCD v Cork AWAY win

Athlone v Dundalk AWAY win

Drogheda v St Pat’s AWAY win

Shamrock Rovers v Bray HOME win

RATEFORM PREDICTS (BASED ON 2014 ONLY):

Bohemians v Sligo DRAW

Derry v Limerick DRAW

UCD V Cork AWAY win

Athlone v Dundalk AWAY win

Drogheda v St Pat’s AWAY win/borderline DRAW

Shamrock Rovers v Bray HOME win

IN SUMMARY:

As ever, that is a lot to take on board. Armed with all of that information, you could perhaps look at it this way. On the balance of probabilities, do not expect Sligo, Derry, Cork, Dundalk, St Pat’s or Shamrock Rovers to lose, with Cork, Dundalk, Shamrock Rovers and Sligo looking likely winners. While our analysis does not see Drogheda beating St Pat’s, the goal probability data indicates a draw as being the most likely outcome. Rateform, based solely on this season, also flags the potential for the game at United Park to end in a draw. Derry and Limerick also has a strong potential to end all square.