Predicting Dundalk v Shamrock Rovers

Our featured match in the Airtricity League Premier Division today is the fixture between Dundalk and Shamrock Rovers at Oriel Park (7.45pm).

It is the sides’ second meeting in three days, with Dundalk 1-0 winners in the Setanta Cup semi-final second leg at the same venue on Tuesday night.

None of our predictive methods – the Poisson distribution, Rateform and score prediction heuristic – see Dundalk losing.

According to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw. There is a 10.9 per cent chance of such an occurrence. There is a 31.9pc probability Dundalk will score precisely one goal. There is a 34.3pc chance Shamrock Rovers will score exactly one goal.

Rateform, rolled over season-on-season from the 2012 campaign, favours Dundalk, who lead the way in the Premier Division by two points from Cork City after the first seven series of games. Cork, though, have played a game fewer.

However, solely on the basis of the 2014 season, Rateform wavers between a home victory and borderline draw.

The score prediction heuristic, which highlights the shorter-term trends, indicates a victory for Dundalk, possibly by a one-goal winning margin and with Over 2.5 goals.

SOMETHING TO CONSIDER: 

According to our calculations, the ‘fair’ odds about a Dundalk win are 1.78 (implied probability 56.25pc). According to our calculations, the ‘fair’ odds about a Rovers win are 3.2 (implied probability 31.25pc). Paddy Power, for instance, are 2.37 (implied probability 42.2pc) about a Dundalk win. According to our ‘fair’ estimation of the odds, that understates Dundalk’s ability to win this fixture. PP go 2.87 (implied probability 34.8pc) about a Rovers win. According to our ‘fair’ estimation of the odds, that overstates Rovers’ ability to win this game. In this instance, the ‘value’ lies in siding with Dundalk. Remember, only trade when the odds are in your favour. 

OTHER PREMIER DIVISION POISSON PREDICTIONS:

Bray Wanderers v Derry City DRAW;

Cork City v Drogheda United HOME win;

Limerick FC v Athlone Town HOME win;

St Patrick's Athletic v Bohemians DRAW;

Sligo Rovers v UCD AWAY win.

RATEFORM PREDICTS (ROLLED OVER SEASON-ON-SEASON FROM 2012):

Bray v Derry AWAY win;

Cork v Drogheda HOME win;

Limerick v Athlone HOME win/borderline draw;

St Pat's v Bohs HOME win;

Sligo v UCD HOME win.

RATEFORM PREDICTS (BASED ON 2014 ONLY):

Bray v Derry DRAW;

Cork v Drogheda HOME win/borderline DRAW;

Limerick v Athlone HOME win;

St Pat's v Bohs HOME win/borderline DRAW;

Sligo v UCD DRAW.

IN SUMMARY: 

That is a lot to take on board. Armed with all of that information, you could perhaps look at it this way. On the balance of probabilities, do not expect Cork, Derry, Limerick or St Pat’s to lose, with Cork, Limerick and St Pat’s more likely to win than draw. Sligo and UCD, though, is best avoided. If you believe Sligo’s form so far has been out of character, the longer-term trends overwhelmingly favour a home victory. However, Rateform (based on 2014 only) and the goal probability distribution data, do not see UCD losing. Interesting!