Predicting St Pats versus Shamrock Rovers

Today we introduce the Poisson distribution to help us predict the outcome of our featured Airtricity League Premier Division fixture between St Patrick's Athletic and Shamrock Rovers at Richmond Park (7.45pm).

The Poisson distribution calculates the likelihood of a given number of goals being scored by each team in a game.

So what does it tell us about the match between St Pat’s and Rovers?

Well, according to the goal probability distribution data, the most likely outcome is a 2-1 win for Rovers. There is a 9.9 per cent chance of such an occurrence. As you will have noticed, even the most likely occurrence is not that likely! Still, there is a 26.9pc probability Rovers will score precisely two goals. There is a 36.6pc chance St Pat’s will score exactly one goal.

There is a 62.6pc probability Rovers will score a minimum of two goals.

What do the other predictive methods – Rateform and the score prediction heuristic – say?

Rateform rolled over season-on-season from the 2012 campaign, favours St Pat’s. However, solely on the basis of this season, Rateform indicates a victory for Rovers, or a borderline draw.

The score prediction heuristic, which highlights the shorter-term trends, again indicates a victory for Trevor Croly’s team, possibly by a two-goal winning margin.

Returning again to the goal probability distribution data, there is a 25.4pc chance that Rovers will score precisely one goal, which is only marginally lower than the 26.9pc probability that they will score exactly two. There is a 9.3pc chance of the game ending in a 1-1 draw.

To guard against the prospect of the game ending in a draw, we recommend Shamrock Rovers draw-no-bet (DNB) as our preferred trade. 

SOMETHING TO CONSIDER: According to our calculations, the ‘fair’ odds about a St Pat’s win are 2.29 (implied probability 43.75pc). The ‘fair’ odds about a Rovers win are 3.2 (implied probability 31.25pc). The ‘fair’ odds about a draw are 4.0 (implied probability 25pc). Remember, only trade when the odds are in your favour. So, odds shorter than 2.29, 3.2 and 4.0 should not be taken. Shop around! 

RECOMMENDED TRADE: Shamrock Rovers DNB. Also, be advised that, according to our calculations, the ‘fair’ odds about Shamrock Rovers DNB are 2.25 (implied probability 44.4pc). Again, only trade when the odds are in your favour. Strictly speaking, odds shorter than 2.25 should not be taken. Ultimately, though, that is up to you.