Champions rarely lose when they score first

Naturally, it is too soon to say that St Patrick's Athletic have reached the point of no return. After all, we are only five games into the 2014 Airtricity League Premier Division campaign. But the 2013 champions may not be far off.

Scoring first and losing, as they did in going down 4-1 to Dundalk at Richmond Park on Friday, is a concern, especially if you have title ambitions.

Yes, they had a player sent-off. But when Greg Bolger was dismissed by referee Padraigh Sutton on 74 minutes, they were already trailing 2-1, and deservedly so.

In winning the title last season, St Pat’s lost just one of 24 games when scoring first. As it happens, that defeat was also against Dundalk, at Oriel Park. They finished the match with 10 men on that occasion too.

A one-season sample is hardly conclusive now, is it? So let’s extend our sample space by adding the 2004, 2011 and 2012 campaigns into the equation.

You will recall that in 2012, Sligo Rovers won the league. What you may not know is that Ian Baraclough’s side did not lose a match when they scored the game’s opening goal.

In 2011, when Shamrock Rovers were crowned champions, they lost just once after scoring first.

In 2004, when Shelbourne lifted the title, they also lost on just the one occasion when they claimed the game’s opening goal.

Of course, it is entirely possible that Friday’s defeat to Dundalk will be the only occasion St Pat’s will lose this year having scored first. After all, nine times out of 10, on average, the team that nets the game’s opening goal does not lose.

However, as our four-season sample shows, champions are not in the habit of losing more than one match having scored first.

What we can say with certainty is that St Pat’s have three points fewer than they had after five games of the 2013 campaign.

That, and the fact that they have failed to win their last three league games, is probably a cause for concern in itself.