Timing is everything - Predicting the first goal

It helps to know what you are doing. If you are trading the financial markets, for instance, some technical indicators work best in range-bound markets, others in trending markets. Trading the football markets is no different. There are important distinctions to be made too. Miscalculations, after all, can cost you money. 

The ‘time of first goal’ market is a line market. It works like this. You determine whether the first goal in a game will be scored before or after a given time. It requires an estimate of the median value, not the mean. It is important that you make that distinction, otherwise your calculations will be wrong.

So, of the 24 matches played in the Airtricity League Premier Division so far this season, what is the median time of all first goal times? It is 36.5 minutes. In other words, 50 per cent of first goal times have occurred before 36.5 minutes and 50 per cent after.

Obviously, times will differ on a game-by-game basis, which brings us on to the six matches being played in the Premier Division tonight.

Hopefully this guide will help you.

Bohemians v Bray Wanderers, Dalymount Park (7.45pm):

The median time of the first goal times in all league games involving these two sides this season is 33 minutes.Paddy Power (PP) go up to and including the 27th minute 2.00 (Evens); after the 27th minute 2.00.

Cork City v Shamrock Rovers, Turner’s Cross (7.45pm):

The median time of the first goal times in all league games involving these two sides this season is 29.5 minutes.PP go up to and including the 31st minute 2.00; after the 31st minute 2.00.

Derry City v Sligo Rovers, Brandywell (7.45pm):

The median time of the first goal times in all league games involving these two sides this season is 50.5 minutes. PP go up to and including the 33rd minute 2.00; after the 33rd minute 2.00.

Drogheda United v Athlone Town, United Park (7.45pm):

The median time of the first goal times in all league games involving these two sides this season is 36 minutes. PP go up to and including the 26th minute 2.00; after the 26th minute 2.00.

St Patrick's Athletic v Dundalk, Richmond Park (7.05pm; ‘live’ RTE Two):

The median time of the first goal times in all league games involving these two sides this season is 39.5 minutes. PP go up to and including the 32nd minute 2.00; after the 32nd minute 2.00.

UCD v Limerick FC, UCD Bowl (7.45pm GMT):

The median time of the first goal times in all league games involving these two sides this season is 32 minutes. PP go up to and including the 26th minute 2.00; after the 26th minute 2.00.

Of course, there could be no goals in any of the six games. In that event, you would be wrong. However, so far there have only been two goalless draws from the 24 games played.