Forecasting the outcome of games

Numerous predictive methods have been devised to help forecast the outcome of matches. Rateform is just one of them. So how does it work?

Teams are allocated 1000 points each at the outset. Over the course of a campaign, points are redistributed amongst the sides with the average number of points for individual teams remaining constant at 1000.

The system can be rolled over season-on-season. The home team contributes a greater percentage of their points compared to the away side (seven per cent as opposed to five) to reflect home advantage. The winning team takes all the points in the kitty. A draw results in a share of it.

So, based on Rateform, which sides are the more likely winners of the four games in the Airtricity League Premier Division tonight?

The Rateform system we are using in this instance has been rolled over season-on-season since the 2012 campaign.

Bohemians v Shamrock Rovers, Dalymount Park (7.45pm): The Hoops get the nod with a massive 713 points differential in their favour compared to Bohs. PREDICTION: Away win.

Cork City v Bray Wanderers, Turner’s Cross (7.45pm): Cork get the verdict with a 366 points differential in their favour compared to Bray. PREDICTION: Home win.

Drogheda United v Derry City, United Park (7.45pm): With just a 58 points differential in Drogheda’s favour, this suggests a draw. PREDICTION: Draw.

UCD v Athlone Town, Belfield Bowl (7.45pm): With a 448 points differential in their favour, Athlone look the more likely winners. PREDICTION: Away win.