Trials and permutations: what Ireland need to qualify for the last 16

Ahead of the Republic of Ireland’s game with Italy next Wednesday, here are the permutations for qualification out of Group E.

For Ireland, it is a case of win or bust. A draw will not be good enough to get one of the coveted best third-place qualification positions. Qualification as runner-up is a possibility, but only if Sweden can do the Boys in Green a favour by beating Belgium.

It will then come down to goal difference (Sweden are two goals better off than Ireland), goals scored (both sides have scored just one goal), disciplinary ranking (Sweden have one less booking than Ireland) or coefficient (but Sweden currently rank higher than Ireland).

With two wins already in the bag, Antonio Conte’s team from Italy are guaranteed to top the table and they will play the Group D runners-up in the Stade de France on 27 June – their opponents will be either Spain, Croatia and the Czech Republic.

If Belgium draw with Sweden, second spot will go to the Red Devils, and whoever finishes second in the group will take on the winners of Group F in Toulouse on 26 June (against Hungary, Portugal or Iceland). If Belgium lose and Martin O’Neill’s men beat Italy, then Belgium will miss out on qualification, as they will finish bottom of the group.

If Sweden can secure a win, they are guaranteed at least third place. If Ireland win too, then the sides will be split on goal difference, then goals scored, then disciplinary ranking and finally coefficient. Sweden still have a chance of going through with a draw as one of the best third-place team.